Research

I study the causes of democratic resilience, backsliding, and breakdown, with a focus on Latin America—and Central America in particular. In one set of projects, including my dissertation, I explore the relationship between organized crime, public security, and democracy. In other projects, I explore a broader range of challenges to contemporary democracies. You can find a list of publications and ongoing projects below.

My research has been supported by grants and fellowships from the American Political Science Association/NSF, the US Institute of Peace, and the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics, as well as by the David Rockfeller Center for Latin American Studies, the Institute for Quantitative Social Science, and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard.

Publications

Papers

• “The Bukele Model: Will It Spread?” (with Alberto Vergara), Journal of Democracy 35(3), 84-98. 2024.
• “Millennial Authoritarianism in El Salvador,” Journal of Democracy 32(3), 19-32. 2021.

Other Academic Publications

• “Review of ‘Violent Victors: Why Bloodstained Parties Win Postwar Elections’ by Sarah Zukerman Daly,” Peace & Change 49(2), 201-203. 2024.
• “Lessons from El Salvador’s Authoritarian Turn,” Democracy and Autocracy Newsletter 20(2), 13-18. 2022.

Under Review and Work in Progress

On Organized Crime, Public Security, and Democracy

• “Criminal Electioneering: A Conceptual Framework”
• “When Do Criminal Groups Target Voters? Evidence from Guatemala”
• “Re-Examining the Security vs Rights Tradeoff: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Guatemala”
• “The Personnel Economics of Law Enforcement” (with Matthew Pecenco and Carlos Schmidt-Padilla)

On Democracy Durability, Backsliding, and Breakdown

• “Asymmetric Institutional Trust and Democratic Backsliding”
• “Far-Right by Convenience: El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele” (book chapter)
• “Democracy and Authoritarianism in Central America” (volume co-edited with Steven Levitsky)
• “Political Establishments and Democracy” (with Steven Levitsky, Aaron Watanabe, and Daniel Ziblatt)
• “Backsliding by Elite Collusion: Authoritarianism and Democratic Resurgence in Guatemala” (with Lucas Perelló)

Reports

• “The Far-Right in El Salvador.” Prepared for the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, 2023.
• “Analysis of Trends in Democratic Attitudes: El Salvador Report.” Prepared for NORC and USAID, 2023.
• “Political Institutions in El Salvador, 2014–Present.” Prepared for The World Bank, 2021. Available upon request.